What befell: the new prime minister for the uk is predicted to be announced within the week beginning july 22. What the group stated: “no” with a closing consensus possibility of eighty two%. This query, first posted on december 21, 2018 and live for 6 months, become a race of halves. Our crowd of extra than 2,500 forecasters made a decisive push for “no” (70% chance) via the second one week in april 2019. This accompanied a two-week duration of uncertainty wherein sure and no were forecast as nearly similarly in all likelihood after the original closing date for article 50. Given events over the past months and the upcoming appointment of a new conservative top minister, this may have effortlessly been our first crowd disappointed, but our forecasters ultimately proved accurate yet again.